Clayton christensen, known as the “father of disruptive innovation,” famously wrote the innovator’s dilemma, one of the 20 most influential business books of the 20th century.
But today we’re going to talk about the dilemma for investors.
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What are they?
On January 7, the official team of Filecoin will return for the Christmas holiday, and the test network will be restarted in the near future. This marks the second phase of open beta (from January 20 to March 20), officially entering the countdown state.
On January 8, the news that phase ii test COINS or related indicators will anchor the main network reward exploded in the community, triggering a heated debate.There is no doubt that the first phase of the open beta battle will escalate again in the second phase as the main network (March 23-april 24) approaches.
This time, who will be the first to go, who will be the biggest dark horse, who is the sprinter, who is better at running?
Hundreds of manufacturers will stir up what kind of river lake spray?
Wulin factions are polishing what kind of secret door?
Whether will each big manufacturer again be immersed in “calculate force first”, “explode piece first” in the white-hot competition?
That may be good for ecology.
But for ordinary investors, it is easy to put them into an investment dilemma.
Situation 1
“How many mines are hidden behind a node?”
No matter which company’s products, the target must be the company has a more efficient mining machine.
If the ranking data of a node is indeed the result of N multi-mining machines, then how to evaluate the technical content of the first N mining machines?
If the manufacturers have through the cluster to run to the first, then in the end who is the first more gold?
Situation 2
“Burst block rank can directly explain the whole network mining cattle?”
Burst block ranked first, can you explain that the level of mining higher?
If the back piled up a lot of mining machine, in fact to each mining machine is not even less FIL?
Situation 3
“All say they are the first, who is the real first?”
Manufacturer A said it was ranked first, manufacturer B also said it was ranked first, and manufacturer C also said it was ranked first. All of them were “picture is truth”.
Situation 4
“A miner 8T, B miner 80T, which one?”
A says Filecoin’s ultimate goal is to make more idle hard drives available, so an 8T miner is the best fit.Manufacturer B said that only 80T can guarantee the lasting mining, we do not consider the small capacity mining machine.
Is 8T better, or is 80T better?
Situation 5
“Which is the best, A 35, 000 or B 350, 000?”
Some domestic mining machine only 35, 000, some to 350, 000, if the evaluation of the price of mining machine huge span?
These are all community issues that I have encountered, including some professional institutional friends.
Some helpless, but this does explain a point, the threshold of the mining circle is far more than the circle of currency, before entering the field, to understand the things to learn nothing less.
The ranking of calculation force only reflects the mining ability of “node”, while the ranking of explosive block only reflects the earning ability of “node”.The former represents the node’s capacity to mine, while the latter represents its yield.
If N miners are supported behind a node, the mining efficiency of the node is actually N * the efficiency of a single miner.Because N is a variable, it’s hard to evaluate which machine is the most efficient.
It also proves that successful investment is a game for the few.
So, what are the key indicators of Filecoin mining?
Throw out a very important but easily overlooked concept — the input-output ratio.
Filecoin
Digging the core of a mine
Back to the core of Filecoin mining — efficient storage.
The larger the proportion of effective storage, the higher the burst block, the more revenue.
The importance of efficient storage
Effective storage for Filecoin mining is accumulated over time.Therefore, the growth rate of effective storage, known as seal speed, is a key metric.
If the seal speed of miner A is 2GB/ h and that of miner B is 3GB/ h, then miner B has more advantages. From this point of view, neither the ranking of calculation force nor the rank of blasting block is important.
For the miner, the increase in effective storage per unit time is lethal.
For investors, we need to add the dimension of capital.
So the core of evaluating a Filecoin investment becomes how quickly the investor’s money can be converted into efficient savings.
I call this key metric — the FIL to profit ratio per unit cost, which in a sense can be expressed in terms of the growth rate of 10,000 yuan per hour of input, i.e. XGB/ hour * 10,000 yuan.
It represents your true input-output ratio and determines the true investment level of your investors.
A simple example is easier to understand:
A mining machine, hard disk capacity 100T, selling price 100,000 yuan.
B mining machine, hard disk capacity 100T, selling price 150,000 yuan.
Therefore, A mining machine per T cost 1000 yuan, B mining machine per T cost 1500 yuan, from the surface, the price of A mining machine seems to have more advantages.
However, if the actual measurement shows that the seal speed of A miner is 2GB/ h and that of B miner is 4GB/ h, then the mining efficiency of B miner is twice that of A, while the cost per T of B is only 1.5 times that of A.
The token return rate of unit cost of A miner is 0.2gb/h * yuan, while that of B miner is 0.27gb/h * yuan. The actual conclusion is that it is more cost-effective to buy B miner.
So, blindly pursue “X yuan /T” this index, in fact, is a misunderstanding.Because T stands for hard disk capacity, not efficient storage.
But most people in the market only know this indicator.
Filecoin mining machine investment
Investing is not always easy.
Masayoshi son, the world’s most successful investor, has invested in more than 800 companies, but has made only 40 profits, with a success rate of only 5%.
Charlie munger, Mr. Buffett’s gold partner, said that taking away the 20 percent of Berkshire hathaway that had the best return on its investment would make his company’s performance miserable.
The chance of sudden wealth in the blockchain field has become a thing of the past with the increasing maturity and standardization of the industry. Any successful investment in the next step will come from more prudent and calm learning and analysis, instead of becoming a leek with only seven seconds of memory on the spur of the moment.
Just as you can’t expect to get rich just by giving someone a ticker symbol, Filecoin’s investment doesn’t have a one-sentence solution.
In addition to comparing key metrics, you’ll need to do a lot of on-the-ground research on the best companies in the industry, get to know the background of the founders, see if the team has solid technical knowledge and decent test network data, etc.
You’ve done what you have to do. It’s not that hard to choose.
Of course, in the end you have to be mentally prepared.If FIL doesn’t do as well as the hype has it, can you live with the long haul?Take a step back. If you lose everything, is this your sunk cost?
If you’re all set, congratulations, you’ve surpassed at least 99% of the investors in this space.
Investment in blockchain will no longer be your last chance to change your class. If you miss it, it doesn’t mean you miss the whole world.
