March 12, 2020, is the day everyone in the currency circle will remember.
It was supposed to be a normal Thursday, except that the environment was still in a special period of the epidemic, but the sudden “three thousand feet” plunge at 6 p.m. sent everyone into a panic.
In less than an hour, bitcoin dipped to $5,500 and closed at $6,133.
While many people were debating whether 5, 500 would be the bottom, after a while the number of COINS stayed the same and the assets shrank again.Shortly after 10 a.m., the price of bitcoin jumped to $3,800.
Once everyone thought that we would never see the beginning of the three words of bitcoin, this goodbye, the community was silent, extremely complex feelings, pain to silence.
In the afternoon, some friends started asking questions in the community:
“What is the impact of the BTC crash on Filecoin?”This is the subject of the interstellar horizon.
With this question in mind, we conducted an intensive online interview with 13 industry veterans to gather their research, opinions or opinions.
They have a wide range of professional investment experts, experienced mining veterans, with the IPFS/Filecoin track stalwarders and persistent entrepreneurs.
Let’s hear what they have to say.
【十三邀】
Capital circle
1
Howard
Fundamental Labs Managing partner
BTC is the pricing anchor of the cryptographic market, and this slump reflects that BTC is still a risky asset. The BTC slump is a blow to confidence in any project, and Filecoin is no exception.
The external cause of the BTC crash is the collapse of the traditional financial market, and its own cause is the excessive financialization, too many derivatives such as futures contracts and the excessive use of loan leverage, resulting in a liquidity crisis.Therefore, in order to truly solve this problem, we need to clear the source, solve the real use case of encrypted assets, and reduce the speculation.
So I think if Filecoin can do that, it might bring some changes to the industry.
2
Kevin Ren
Founding partner of consensus lab
I think Filecoin is a big opportunity for a few reasons:
1. Filecoin itself has some delay due to the technical upgrade, and this market issue has given it a valuable time window.Let it go online almost in sync with the expected market recovery.
2. Because there is no online, so perfect to avoid the crash.There are no eggs under the dangerous nest.Not online to avoid being killed by mistake.And falling currencies in the markets may be the best time to pick up the pieces
3. The focus of Filecoin itself is based on the quality of the project, the technology, and the problems to be solved.With this in mind, participation is not a big problem.But be careful to distinguish the true from the false.This has nothing to do with the market, it has to do with judgment.
thank you
3
King
Founding partner, CFA
Two angles:
1. If from the perspective of the industry vane, the sharp decline of BTC is definitely not a good thing for the digital currency industry as a whole. The blow of confidence, the decline of wealth, and the doubt outside the circle are confirmed, there is no landing project and no value (buffett thinks).
What is more frightening is that BTC does not have a reliable cost support mechanism (the mining cost of 3 million residual mines is not much related to the market value of 18 million).
2. It’s not necessarily a bad thing for Filecoin, because Filecoin is a hard-disk linked blockchain project with practical application value, which can justify the industry.
In addition, Filecoin has a definite connection with the real world. If the price is too low, it will trigger the arbitrage behavior of hard disk and form the support of buying, unlike BTC, which is completely in the virtual world, relying on the support of faith, highly sensitive to capital and emotions, and the situation of huge ups and downs.
4
Rin
Distributed capital partners
The overall financial environment and the irrational decline caused by the epidemic situation are also a process of clearing the leverage of the industry. After the release of liquidity, it will get better. Filecoin will be launched in July, and there is basically no impact.
However, there is a lack of new quality assets in the market as a whole, and we believe that Filecoin will change this situation.
5
Severus Qu
Hashkey investment manager
I don’t think it is directly related to Filecoin, but every slump is a good opportunity for investors and developers, so I think it will be beneficial to the ecological development of Filecoin indirectly.
I believe that Filecoin is a global, very resilient and resilient team. The cooling of the market and some objective conditions caused by the epidemic will enable the team to conduct more in-depth research and development and make the whole ecology more solid.
6
Xiao-chen wang
Partners at Ben rui capital
Survival of the fittest, good money to drive out the trend of bad money is more obvious, the elimination of bubble state will continue.
I am optimistic about the future of FIL, a project with practical landing value.Short — term in the market may be extremely gun-shy, the capital trend is not too clear, the long — term impact is not big.
7
Younglab cloud
Founder of pole bean capital
The decline of bitcoin is mainly caused by the global economic crisis caused by the epidemic. When a series of negative economic effects such as the us stock circuit breaker, the price drop of crude oil, and the fall of bitcoin occur, the impact of Filecoin is twofold.
1. The price of bitcoin has forced many miners to shut down or simply quit bitcoin mining.
Idle resources were created, and miners needed a new battlefield.In particular, Filecoin confirmed the GPU mining scheme at the end of last year, which increased the miners’ confidence in Filecoin.
2. The second stage test and the delay of the launch time of the main network also affected the positive mentality of some miners.
In addition, bitcoin is the direction of the digital currency market, and if there is not a wave of gains before or after halving, it will also affect the confidence of the entire digital currency market participants, including the supporters of Filecoin.
On the whole, I think the bitcoin crash will do more harm than good to Filecoin. In the future, Filecoin may become another “bitcoin” position.
Ore circle
8
Mr Chen
Jia nan yunzhi sales director
BTC crash, first of all, has a great impact on market sentiment, which is still in a state of extreme panic;The already fragile market coupled with the spread of panic, it should be said that the project on the market are relatively large pressure.
On the other hand, the underlying meaning of a crisis is opportunity.
Assets that can ride the bull/bear cycle are good investments.Similarly, in the current context, Filecoin is a star project in the market. If we can actively maintain the technology development iteration and expand the ecological application of the project, we believe that the value of Filecoin will be more concerned by the market in the future.
9
Kevin Shao
Jiannan block chain general manager
This slump is a global financial crisis spread.
The liquidity crunch is a problem for many assets, even the supposedly safe haven asset of gold. BTC’s slump stems from the fact that it is a liquid asset and not restricted to trading.
Other assets, such as traditional stocks, are protected by circuit-breakers, and the currency market has none.
For Filecoin, its future asset characteristics are also similar to bitcoin, so there will be some similarities between the two, but differences.Filecoin is not designed as a currency, but as an extension of functionality, and has a basis in terms of volatility or value construction.
All in all, the great economic turmoil, many assets will show their own characteristics, this time also test everyone’s ability and wisdom.
10
Daniel,
Co-founder of bitspace, a veteran miner
The BTC slump has not only affected Filecoin. Currently, BTC is the absolute spiritual leader in the digital currency field, and its price fluctuations have affected the entire digital currency field, as well as the blockchain field (if you must separate the chain from the currency).
Filecoin delays the launch of the main network. I think it is not only for technical reasons, but also for reference to the current market heat in the whole digital currency field. If the price of a main network currency drops after the launch, it is very negative for any blockchain technology.
Just like a listed company with good technology, for example, tesla’s stock price continued to fall in the past few years, and numerous financial institutions shorted it, which led to great pressure on the founder from the capital level, and also led to difficulties in financing and even shortage of cash flow.However, at the beginning of this year, tesla had a good growth rate, which not only improved the brand of the whole enterprise, but also greatly alleviated the capital level, and crossed the bottleneck of cash flow shortage.
Considering the price factor, Filecoin is definitely sensitive and comprehensive.
Back to the impact of the price of bitcoin on the entire market, which is self-evident, as the absolute benchmark of the current digital currency, one may not all the glory, but the loss of bitcoin, all the loss!
The sentiment of the whole digital currency market is highly positively correlated with the price fluctuation of bitcoin. Therefore, the bitcoin crash will lead to a series of events in the whole industry, such as technical problems, losses, financial collapse, quantitative collapse, zero of personal investment, shutdown of miners and so on.The end result is — industry depression!
If Filecoin crystallization is a great block chain, if it was born in an industry crisis, will be hit by a huge joint, like just was born days ray which zha, Filecoin again big powers at this time, may also is not the past, even if it, also will suffer great blow cause the whole foundation and its technical team to bear a lot of damage.This loss may be the loss of core members, community breakdown, investor confrontation, attacks on the main chain, less than expected support, etc.
Therefore, to sum up the above views, under the current market, Filecoin may even continue to delay the launch of the main network time, to avoid dying.In a word, the BTC slump will have an extremely negative impact on Filecoin!
IPFS垂直圈
11
Andy
Star ecology 1475 node miners
From the perspective of macro market environment:
This is not only the fall of bitcoin, but also the fall of global assets. From crude oil to global stock index, even the safe-haven asset gold also fell. This is a global liquidity contraction, and bitcoin, as an extremely liquid global asset, bears the brunt of the selling.
An important cause of this global “crisis” is the new outbreak, which not only restricted the movement of people, but also limited the flow of goods. Even liberal countries like the United States began to restrict the transmission of information, which caused several years of setbacks in the operation of the global economy.
In this “chaotic world”, bitcoin (free transfer of value) and Filecoin (free transfer of information) may give rise to new expectations.Looking forward to the early launch of Filecoin.
From the short-term market sentiment:
A short-term plunge is bound to have a huge impact on market sentiment, and we’ve seen Filecoin’s futures plunge in tandem with bitcoin.
The whole industry chain is also pessimistic in a short time. Many bitcoin miners are facing shutdown, and the miners in Filecoin have also made a reassessment of the future currency price.For our team, it is relatively optimistic.
Because the mining industry has a logic is a “comparative advantage”, as long as the mining efficiency is higher than other mill, when other mill downtime high efficiency machine also can continue to dig, and as part of the exit of mill, so difficult to drop, mining and the average earnings per mining machine and will improve, so will eventually reach a dynamic balance.
As long as there is this “comparative advantage”, the overall resilience will increase significantly, so a short-term slump may lead to a period of negative returns from mining, but the market is self-healing.In the end, some inefficient miners may quit mining, but efficient miners continue to make positive profits.
From the perspective of block chain development:
The sharp drop in the past two days proves that bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but a high-risk investment asset, which makes investors in all coinage and mining circles rethink a question: how much is the consensus value? Is it possible for bitcoin to go to zero in extreme cases?
Therefore, the implementation of blockchain project has become an important dimension to redefine the future development of blockchain/digital currency.As the underlying infrastructure project of decentralized storage in blockchain, Filecoin is likely to be the first to achieve large-scale application, so it may find new opportunities in the pessimistic market sentiment.
12
戴嘉乐
Author of principles and practice of IPFS
Placidity may not have vitality, risks and opportunities coexist, for the circle, will pull new to promote life.
13
陈晓寅
Star iron China promoter
The price of Bitcoin has an effect on the investment confidence of Filecoin in the short term and a limited effect on the long term.If Filecoin fails, I think it is more likely that the technology/consensus setting and ecological construction will come from itself.
The Bitcoin slump has little long-term impact on Filecoin, as Bitcoin and Filecoin are blockchain projects in two different directions.Bitcoin aims to challenge the traditional financial industry with the currency as its starting point, while Filecoin aims to solve the problem of using idle resources to achieve decentralized storage and challenges the project of centralized cloud storage.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has become a weathervane for the investment of blockchain digital assets.So the Bitcoin slump will affect investors’ confidence in Filecoin in the secondary market of traditional digital assets in the short term, but it will not affect the underlying long-term value of Filecoin.
So that’s all the answers
Interview time, March 13 afternoon, I hope there is always a sentence to trigger your independent thinking.
Although the market is low, I found that the guests are still extremely busy, some of the guests are on the phone, some are about to check in, but they are very serious and honest reply to the star horizon this hot topic, here we would like to express our thanks on behalf of the community partners!
“The thoughts of one’s spiritual world can sink to the bottom of the ocean for thousands of meters,” and the written word is just one way to show that.
We must always believe that words are powerful and vital.
The above replies are copyrighted by the 13 invited guests.The views in question represent the author’s personal thoughts only. Investment needs to be cautious and does not constitute any advice to anyone.
撰写：星际视界Nancy
编辑：星际视界格格
